Predicting bank insolvencies using machine learning techniques

Proactively monitoring and assessing the economic health of financial institutions has always been the cornerstone of supervisory authorities. In this work, we employ a series of modeling techniques to predict bank insolvencies on a sample of US-based financial institutions. Our empirical results indicate that the method of Random Forests (RF) has a superior out-of-sample and out-of-time predictive performance, with Neural Networks also performing almost equally well as RF in out-of-time samples. These conclusions are drawn not only by comparison with broadly used bank failure models, such as Logistic, but also by comparison with other advanced machine learning techniques. Furthermore, our results illustrate that in the CAMELS evaluation framework, metrics related to earnings and capital constitute the factors with higher marginal contribution to the prediction of bank failures. Finally, we assess the generalization of our model by providing a case study to a sample of major European banks.     

Managers’ exploration activities and individual unlearning: the mediating role of learning orientation and reflection

Abstract

The main goal of this study was to investigate the effects of managers’ exploration activities on learning orientation, reflection, and unlearning of team members. A questionnaire survey was conducted among 115 employees in 23 teams from a Japanese pharmaceutical company. The results of multi-level analyses suggest that managers’ exploration activities had a direct influence on team members’ learning orientations, which subsequently had a positive influence on their unlearning, with and without the mediation of reflection. These findings suggest that a subordinate’s unlearning is driven by managers’ activities through motivational and cognitive processes. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.     

Partner‐diversity effects on alliance termination in the early stage of green alliance formation: Empirical evidence from carbon‐emission reduction projects in Latin America

Partner diversity is a key influencer in interorganizational alliances, and several empirical studies have shown that its outcomes are contingent on alliance‐specific factors. We extend this research as well as the growing literature on green alliances, in which partner diversity is uniquely high. Specifically, we examine partner‐diversity effects on alliance termination in the early stage of green alliance formation. We hypothesize that in this context, size disparity increases termination likelihood, whereas organizational variety and cultural separation have the opposite effect. To test our hypotheses, we use a sample of 366 alliance projects located in Latin America and submitted to the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism for evaluation, validation, and registration from 2004 to 2014. Our findings contribute to several research streams and provide practical guidance for successful formation of alliances focused on environmental protection.     

地方人大中的地域代表现象探析——基于五省市人大代表建议的内容分析

本文试图探析在中国地方人大中是否存在地域性代表及其相关因素。通过收集和分析2017年国内五省市人大收到的近四千条代表建议,发现在地方人大代表的履职行为中,一定范围内存在从整体资源中为选区争取利益的现象。进一步回归分析的结果显示:来自经济发展水平相对较低的地区的代表,更倾向于提出地域性建议;由代表联名提出的建议更可能是地域性建议;担任地方党政领导职务的省市人大代表,在提出建议时更倾向于提出地域性建议。上述实证发现对中国地方人大地域性代表的实现机制提供了初步启发性证据,也有助于丰富我们对非竞选体制下的政治代表性和回应性机制的理解。     

基于Moran过程的PPP项目承包商机会主义行为演化动态

在PPP项目中，由于政府部门和承包商的目标不一致以及信息不对称等原因的存在，使得在其全寿命周期过程中，承包商的机会主义行为屡见不鲜。本文基于随机演化博弈理论，建构基于Moran过程的博弈模型，旨在探讨推动PPP项目承包商不采取机会主义行为策略的有利条件。研究表明，承包商数目不断扩大，通过降低承包商之间的举报成本，增大惩处力度，可使降低机会主义行为发生概率的效果显著。进一步，借助数值算例，对研究结果进行验证并给出相应的管理对策。     

Supplier empowerment: Mediating situational factors and perceived performance

The understanding of the behavioral and cognitive factors that affect organizations' performance has attracted increasing attention of scholars and practitioners. Based on the literature of psychological empowerment at the individual and the team levels, this study develops the concept of supplier empowerment in the context of purchasing and supply management. Further, this study proposes a research model that explores the role of supplier empowerment as a cognitive concept in mediating the relationship between situational factors (a supplier's process modularity and the mutual trust with its customers/buyers) and the supplier's perceived performance in its operations and customer service. This model is tested with 208 responses from automotive industry suppliers. The findings highlight the importance of empowered suppliers in decreasing inventory levels and increasing order fulfillment performance.     

加强新时代高校宿舍舍长队伍建设,助力“00后”大学生成长成才

加强新时代高校宿舍舍长队伍建设,更有利于积极发挥高校宿舍育人阵地的作用,高校宿舍舍长在教育管理工作中的重要性不可忽视。论文提出从提高新时代宿舍舍长工作的站位、加强宿舍舍长的角色认同与培养、加强宿舍舍长管理机制的制度建设三个方面,加强高校宿舍舍长队伍的建设,助力新时代“00后”大学生的成长成才。     

Marx 200: The Abiding Relevance of the Labour Theory of Value

ABSTRACT

Marxist political economy is alive and well, and not just because of the habitual turn to Marx in response to any crisis of capitalism. Both through Capital and through the continuing evolution of Marxism, Marxist political economy offers valuable insights that can illuminate the modalities of social and economic reproduction and the relationships between (different aspects of) the economic and the non-economic. Marxism’s presence has been felt through its own internal debates and debates with other approaches to political economy, and even through its influence on those reacting against Marxism. The key to the continuing relevance and analytical strengths of Marxist political economy lies in its capacity to provide a framework of analysis for unifying disparate insights into and critiques of the contradictions of capitalism across the social sciences. The instrument for forging that unity is Marx’s theory of value, the potential of which is examined and illustrated with reference to the Sraffian critique and two key concepts in Marxian political economy: the value of labour power and financialisation. They are explored in the light of the processes of commodification, commodity form and commodity calculation.